Regime shift for a weaker USD to continue into next year – TDS

Economists at TD Securities do not think the USD is breaking out, and continue to forecast a notable pullback throughout 2024. 

US economy slowing through 2024

The regime shift for a weaker USD is evident, and we expect it to continue into next year especially as we see the US economy entering a modest recession with the Fed cutting steeply whereas the rest of the world is still muddling along. 

We see the USD correcting lower from over-valued and stretched levels where it aligns more with macro drivers. 

A reversion in US curve dynamics from bear to bull steepening will also be very bearish for the USD. Another theme to keep an eye out for in 2024 is the deteriorating fiscal position of the US where growing concern can lead to higher rates but a weaker USD (especially versus JPY).