GBP unlikely to see notable gains following CPI release – MUFG

The ONS has just released the July CPI data. Economists at MUFG Bank do not expect the British Pound (GBP) to enjoy substantial gains following inflation figures.

Inflation surprises modestly to the upside 

The drop overall in inflation was a little less than expected. The core CPI rate remained unchanged at 6.9% with services CPI YoY accelerating from 7.2% to 7.4%. The data will clearly add to the pricing probability of the BoE going by 50 bps rather than 25 bps in September but we doubt there will be a substantial shift in pricing at this juncture. 

Given we believe there are upside risks for the Dollar at the moment, we would play long GBP views versus the Euro for now, although like yields we doubt GBP will see notable gains following this CPI release.