EUR/CHF will only return to 1.00 when global inflation converges back to Swiss levels – ING

EUR/CHF has come steadily lower. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.

Let’s not get carried away

While our preference has been for a lower EUR/CHF for a while, we would not necessarily chase this move because of developments in USD/CHF. The Dollar has around a 20% weight in the CHF trade-weighted basket and the big drop in USD/CHF will be doing the heavy lifting for the CHF TWI appreciation.

We could see EUR/CHF trading here for a while and only return to 1.00 when global inflation converges back to Swiss levels.