USD Index to head toward the lows at the end of 2020 – SocGen

The US Dollar Index has not been this weak since April 2022, weeks after the invasion of Ukraine started. Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, analyzes Greenback’s outlook.

The Dollar’s discounting the peak in rates again

The market is anticipating the peak in US rates and a further narrowing relative rates. If nothing happens to scupper those expectations (another upside surprise in US growth, or further European growth disappointment) I would expect the Dollar Index to closer but not all the way to the lows at the end of 2020. 

That won’t happen in a straight line and will require further interest rate convergence between the US and other major economies, however.