EUR/USD: ECB will disappoint, Euro-bulls should be cautious – Commerzbank

At some point, the ECB will only be able to disappoint. Euro-bulls should be prepared for that moment, economists at Commerzbank report.

ECB can only really surprise on the dovish side

“Clearly many are currently of the view that the ECB was more restrictive than the Fed. However, at some point following the presumably last ECB rate step in June that is likely to be over. At that point, the ECB can only really surprise on the dovish side.”

“That will take a while though and the Euro is likely to remain the favourite until then, as not only inflation momentum and monetary policy are in its favour.”

“The Dollar is also under pressure as a result of additional factors at present, such as the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling. At some point things will change though. Euro-bulls should not lose track of that and should be prepared for that moment.”