Canada: Labor market remained strong in April – CIBC

Data released on Friday showed the Canadian economy added 41,000 jobs in April, more than the 20,000 of market consensus. Analysts at CIBC point out the labor market remained strong in April and warned the still-strong wage inflation will be particularly worrisome for the Bank of Canada (BoC). 

Key quotes:

“The Canadian labour market remained strong in April, with employment rising by more than expected, the unemployment rate remaining near all time lows and wage inflation failing to decelerate. The still-strong wage inflation will be particularly worrisome for the Bank of Canada, as policymakers have expressed concern regarding a pass through to services inflation which could see headline inflation failing to fall all the way back to the 2% target, suggesting that a hawkish tone will remain in upcoming communications.”

“Employment growth may not be able to match that of the working population for much longer, with job vacancies down from their peaks and service industries that have been hiring recently now closer to fully staffed relative to pre-pandemic norms. That should see the unemployment rate rise modestly in the second half of the year, easing some of the wage pressures that remain in place and enabling the Bank of Canada to gradually cut interest rates in 2024.”

“Bond yields rose after the release, with markets pricing in a slightly greater chance of another 25bp rate hike from the Bank of Canada before July.”