BoC Minutes shine light on discussion of rate hikes in April – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) express their afterthoughts on Wednesday’s Minutes of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) April monetary policy meeting.

Key quotes

“The Bank of Canada's Summary of Deliberations from April built on its hawkish message by outlining the argument for (and against) a rate hike in April and acknowledging that the economy was proving to be stronger than expected in January.”

“The argument to keep rates unchanged boiled down to a desire for more evidence that rates were not restrictive enough, given a similar outlook for growth and inflation. However, the Bank cited several upside risks to its outlook and also pushed back against market pricing for rate cuts in 2023.”

“We continue to look for the Bank to hold rates at 4.50% into 2024, but today's minutes should reinforce that risks are skewed towards more hikes in the near-term.”