USD/BRL to travel toward 5.15 after a hawkish BCB – TDS

The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) remained on hold and disappointed dovish longings. Economists at TD Securities expect the rates curve (OD futures curve) and BRL to react to a hawkish BCB by delaying prospects for first cuts towards Q3 and strengthen against the USD towards 5.15 levels, respectively.

BCB remains hawkish and vigilant

“BCB remained on hold and disappointed dovish longings, as we expected. The central bank kept its hawkish profile justified by higher inflation forecasts, unanchored inflation expectations, and financial-market volatility.”

“We expect markets to partially fade prospects of rate cuts in Q1 and Q2. As of the March 22 closing, the OD futures curve was pricing in nearly 50bps of cuts for H1 2023. We think such expectations will be pushed towards Q3 — in line with our own forecast.” 

“In the case of the BRL, we think a hawkish BCB should imply stronger levels against the USD. We expect the BRL to travel towards 5.15 from the current 5.24 as a response to the BCB decision.”