EUR/NOK: Krone enjoys a supportive backdrop to strengthen – Commerzbank

Economists at Commerzbank remain optimistic as far as the outlook for the Norwegian krone is concerned.

Good reasons for a strong krone

“If one looks at Norway’s terms of trade, one should expect that the krone appreciated massively against the euro, not least because the eurozone’s terms of trade have developed in the diametrically opposed direction to those of Norway. After all, the eurozone is an energy importer, whereas Norway exports energy, and not exactly on a small scale either.”

“Things are also looking good for the currency as far as monetary policy is concerned. According to a Bloomberg poll, analysts are split as regards today’s rate decision. One side expects a 50 bps rate hike, the other side expects a smaller step of 25 bps. But even if Norges Bank hiked its rates slightly more slowly, Norwegian real interest rates would still remain much higher than in the eurozone, not least because inflation in Norway is approx. 3 percentage points lower.”

See – Norges Bank Preview: Forecasts from five major banks, back to 25 bps hikes